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Money Panel: No Rate Cut Yet

The ten men and women who make-up the Sky News Money Panel believe that another "hold" is inevitable.

Despite concerns about the slowing economy, the panel's unanimous opinion is that the base rate will remain at 5%.

Over the weekend, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, warned that Britain was facing its toughest economic challenge for 60 years.

On Monday the value of Sterling began falling, a trend which was exacerbated when the OECD predicted that the UK would be the only major industrial country to plunge into recession this year.

James Caan, the entrepreneur and star of Dragon's Den said: "The bank will want to be sure inflation is heading in the direction they want (or at least on track for a slowdown) before they cut the base rate."

Last week Professor David Blanchflower, a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, told Reuters that big cuts in rates were needed to stave off a slump.

All of the panel agree that a cut is needed to shock the economy out of its stupor but disagree about whether or not the MPC is in a position to deliver one.

"I would call for a major cut as the economy and housing market requires help to stem off a recession and limit a large scale property crash. Up take of mortgages are at an all time low, first time buyers require on average £37,000 to get on the housing ladder", said Gary McCausland, the Property Developer on the panel.

Mr McCausland would like to see the base rate lower from 5% to 4%. James Caan and Gerard Lyons (the Chief Economist at Standard Chartered) would also like to see the cost of borrowing fall, although not by as much.

Gerard Lyons believes a 0.5% cut is needed: "The economy is now in free-fall. I am predicting four successive quarters of contraction, a deep recession of minus 1.6 pct growth next. Rate cuts are needed and now."

Not everyone on the panel thinks that the economy is the big problem. Seven of the panel believe a hold is the right course of action to ensure inflation is kept under control.

Bronwyn Curtis, the Chief Economist at the Arch Group, said:"The activity data has been dire and the economy may already been in recession. Unfortunately inflation risks have not dropped in tandem. Further steep hikes in gas and electricity prices have been announced and sterling has plummeted increasing the risk of a further surge in imported inflation."

At a time when the veracity of some of the economic data the Bank of England uses is being questioned, one panellist, Nick Parsons, Head of Markets Strategy for nabCapital, leapt to the statisticians defence.

He said: "Overall, the UK's official statistics are amongst the best in the world, especially as the ONS is now formally independent from government...when trying to deliver low inflation and economic stability, it is vital that accurate information about current conditions is made available in an accurate and timely manner."

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